<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\uce78\ub098\uc774 \uc804\ud22c: \uce74\ub974\ud0c0\uace0\uc758 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uc804\uc220\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \ub85c\ub9c8\uad70\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ud328\ubc30<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc758 \uac70\ub300\ud55c \ud30c\ub178\ub77c\ub9c8 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc778\uac04\uc758 \ud22c\uc7c1\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc601\uc6d0\ud788 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud558\ub098\ub294 \ud53c\uc640 \ucca0\uc758 \uc804\uc7a5\uc774\uba70, \ub2e4\ub978 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \uacf5\ud3ec\uc640 \ud0d0\uc695\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uae30\uc6d0\uc804 216\ub144 \uce78\ub098\uc774 \ud3c9\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c\ub2c8\ubc1c\uc774 \ub85c\ub9c8 \uad70\ub2e8\uc744 \ud3ec\uc704\ud588\ub358 \uadf8 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uac10\uc740, 2008\ub144 \ub9ac\uba3c \ube0c\ub77c\ub354\uc2a4 \ubd95\uad34 \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc815\ud655\ud788 \uc7ac\ud604\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \ud22c\uc7c1, \uc989 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 ‘\uc790\uc6d0 \ubc30\ubd84’\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc ‘\ud611\uc0c1(Bargaining)’ \uacfc\uc815\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \ud3c9\ud654\ub294 \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ud611\uc0c1 \uacfc\uc815\uc758 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc120\uc774\ub2e4. \uac08\ub4f1\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc740 “\ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc138\ub825 \uac04\uc758 \uad8c\ub825(\uc790\uc6d0 \ud1b5\uc81c\uad8c) \ud22c\uc7c1”\uc774\ub2e4. \ud504\ub85c\uc774\uc13c\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uac00 \uce7c \ud3f0 \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\ub294 \uc804\uc7c1\uc744 “\ub2e4\ub978 \uc218\ub2e8\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d”\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc815\uc758\ud588\ub2e4. \uac19\uc740 \ub9e5\ub77d\uc5d0\uc11c, \ud22c\uc790\ub294 “\ub2e4\ub978 \uc218\ub2e8\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \uc790\uc6d0\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uad00\ub9ac”\ub85c \uc815\uc758\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc804\uc7c1\uc740 “\uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc838\uc628 \ud604\uc7ac\uc640 \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \ud76c\uc0dd\ud558\uc5ec” \uce58\ub7ec\uc9c0\uba70, \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \ud3c9\ud654 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0 \uadf8 \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \ubc30\ubd84\ud558\uace0 \uc131\uc7a5\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ube44\uc720 \uad00\uacc4\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, ‘\uc790\uc6d0 \uad00\ub9ac’\ub77c\ub294 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc5f0\uc18d\uc120\uc0c1\uc758 \ub450 \uc9c0\uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \uad70\uc0ac \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc790\uc6d0 \ubc30\ubd84\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \ud615\ud0dc\ub97c \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc744 \uaff0\ub6ab\uc5b4 \ubcf4\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub80c\uc988\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \ubaa8\ub450 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c ‘\ube44\uc6a9’\uc744 \uc218\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub450 \uc601\uc5ed \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b9\ud328\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc9c0\uc131\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c ‘\ud589\ub3d9’\uc774\ub2e4. \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\uac00 \uc624\ub298\ub0a0 \uc0b4\uc544\uc788\ub2e4\uba74, \uc804\uc7c1\uc744 \ud3ec\ucee4\uac00 \uc544\ub2cc \ud604\ub300\uc758 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ube44\uc720\ud588\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub450 \uc601\uc5ed \ubaa8\ub450 \uc218\uc2ed \ub144\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uc778\ub0b4\uc2ec, \uc704\ud5d8 \uac10\uc218, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc790\uae30 \ud30c\uad34\uc801 \ucda9\ub3d9\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc778\uac04\uc801 \uc694\uc18c\ub97c \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c ‘\uacf5\ud3ec’\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uac00 \ub108\ubb34 \uc77c\ucc0d \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0, ‘\ud0d0\uc695’\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc887\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacf5\ud669 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\ube44\ub300\ub97c \ub108\ubb34 \uc77c\ucc0d \ud22c\uc785\ud558\uac70\ub098, \ud0d0\uc695\uc5d0 \uc774\ub04c\ub824 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc744 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud55c \ucc44 \uad70\ub300\ub97c \uc804\uc9c4\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc804\uc7a5\uc758 \uc9c0\ud718\uad00\uacfc \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\ub2e4. \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 ‘\ud1b5\uc81c’\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 ‘\ud3b8\uc548\ud558\uac8c’ \ub290\ub07c\ub294 \uc790\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc774 \uae00\uc740 \uc804\uc7a5\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc704\ub300\ud55c \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uad70\uc0ac \uac1c\ub150, \uc989 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’\uc640 ‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810’\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud604\ub300 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uaddc\uc728\uacfc \ud1b5\ucc30\uc744 \ubc1d\ud788\uace0\uc790 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>\ud30c\ud2b8 1: \ubb34\uc801\uc758 \uc9c4\ud615 \u2013 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/span>1.1. \uc804\uc220\uc758 \uae30\uc6d0: \uce78\ub098\uc774\uc758 \ud3ec\uc704<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8(Hammer and Anvil)’\ub294 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc0c1 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc624\ub798\ub418\uace0 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \ud3ec\uc704 \uc12c\uba78 \uc804\uc220 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc774\ub984\uc740 “\uc544\ubb34\ub9ac \uac15\ud55c \uc1e0\ub77c\ub3c4 \ubaa8\ub8e8 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9dd\uce58\ub85c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uce58\uba74 \ubd80\uc11c\uc9c4\ub2e4”\ub294 \uc9c4\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ub798\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\uc220\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc18c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’ (\uc9c0\uc6d0\/\ubc29\uc5b4):<\/strong> \uc801\uc758 \uc8fc\ub825\uc744 \uc815\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1b\uc544\ub0b4\uace0 \uace0\uc815\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc815\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\uc5b4 \ubd80\ub300. \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uc7a5\ubcf4\ubcd1\uc774\ub098 \ud314\ub791\ud06c\uc2a4(Phalanx)\uac00 \uc774 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud588\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub8e8\uc758 \uc784\ubb34\ub294 \uc774\uae30\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c **’\ubc84\ud2f0\ub294 \uac83’**\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n‘\ub9dd\uce58’ (\uc8fc\ub825\/\uacf5\uaca9):<\/strong> \ubaa8\ub8e8\uac00 \uc801\uc744 \ubd99\uc7a1\uc544 \ub450\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548, \uae30\ub3d9\ud558\uc5ec \uc801\uc758 \uce21\uba74\uc774\ub098 \ud6c4\ubc29\uc744 \ud0c0\uaca9\ud558\ub294 \uc5ed\ub3d9\uc801\uc778 \uae30\ub3d9 \ud0c0\uaca9 \ubd80\ub300. \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ubcd1\uc774 \uc774 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ub9e1\uc558\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\uc774 \uc804\uc220\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \ub450 \ubd80\ub300 \uac04\uc758 ‘\uc815\ud655\ud55c \ud611\uc751’\uacfc ‘\ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d’\uc774\ub2e4. \ub9dd\uce58\uac00 \uc131\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ubaa8\ub8e8\uac00 \uc801\uc758 \uc8fc\ub825\uc744 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc634\uc9dd\ub2ec\uc2f9 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ud558\uc5ec, \ub9dd\uce58\uc758 \ud6c4\ubc29 \uae30\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc54c\ub809\uc0b0\ub354 \ub300\uc655\uc740 \uc774 \uac1c\ub150\uc744 \uc544\ubc84\uc9c0 \ud544\ub9ac\ud3ec\uc2a4 2\uc138\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ubb3c\ub824\ubc1b\uc544, \ub9c8\ucf00\ub3c4\ub2c8\uc544 \ud314\ub791\ud06c\uc2a4(\ubaa8\ub8e8)\uc640 \uadf8\uc758 \ud5e4\ud0c0\uc774\ub85c\uc774 \uae30\ubcd1(\ub9dd\uce58)\uc744 \uacb0\ud569\ud55c \uc81c\ubcd1\ud569\ub3d9 \uc804\uc220\ub85c \uc774\ub97c \uc644\uc131\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc218\uc801 \uc5f4\uc138\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc774\uc218\uc2a4 \uc804\ud22c\uc640 \uac00\uc6b0\uac00\uba5c\ub77c \uc804\ud22c\uc5d0\uc11c \ud398\ub974\uc2dc\uc544 \uad70\ub300\ub97c \uaca9\ud30c\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc774 \uc804\uc220\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774 \uc804\uc220\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc644\ubcbd\ud55c \uad6c\ud604\uc740 \uae30\uc6d0\uc804 216\ub144 \uce78\ub098\uc774 \uc804\ud22c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uce74\ub974\ud0c0\uace0\uc758 \uc7a5\uad70 \ud55c\ub2c8\ubc1c\uc740 \uc758\ub3c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc57d\ud55c \ubcf4\ubcd1(\ubaa8\ub8e8)\uc744 \uc911\uc559\uc5d0 \ubc30\uce58\ud558\uace0 **\uac70\uc9d3 \ud6c4\ud1f4(feigned retreat)**\ub97c \uba85\ub839\ud588\ub2e4. \ub85c\ub9c8\uad70\uc774 \uc774 ‘\ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uae4a\uc219\uc774 \ubc00\uace0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc624\uc790, \uc591\uc775\uc5d0 \ubc30\uce58\ub418\uc5c8\ub358 \ud55c\ub2c8\ubc1c\uc758 \uc815\uc608 \uae30\ubcd1(\ub9dd\uce58)\uc774 \ub85c\ub9c8\uad70\uc758 \ud6c4\ubc29\uc744 \ud0c0\uaca9\ud558\uc5ec \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc0c1 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uace0 \uc624\ub298\ub0a0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub418\ub294 \ud3ec\uc704 \uc12c\uba78\uc744 \uc644\uc131\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>1.2. \uacac\uace0\ud55c ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’: \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uae30\ubc18<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0\uc11c ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud558\uace0 \uc0dd\uc874\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uae30\ubc18\uc774\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub8e8\uc758 \uc784\ubb34\ub294 ‘\uc774\uae30\ub294 \uac83'(\ubd80\uc790\uac00 \ub418\ub294 \uac83)\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c ‘\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac83’<\/strong>(\uac00\ub09c\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\ub294 \uac83)\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc0ac\ub840 1: ‘\ucf54\uc5b4-\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8(Core-Satellite)’ \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 ‘\ucf54\uc5b4’<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n‘\ucf54\uc5b4-\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8’ \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ucd5c\uc18c\ud654\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucd08\uacfc \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \uc124\uacc4\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0\uc11c ‘\ucf54\uc5b4(Core)’\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’\uc774\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucd1d\uc790\uc0b0\uc758 60-80%\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\uba70, S&P 500\uc774\ub098 MSCI World\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub294 \ud328\uc2dc\ube0c \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \ud380\ub4dc\ub098 ETF\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774 ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc218\uc775(\ubca0\ud0c0, Beta)\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uba70, “\ub0ae\uc740 \ube44\uc6a9”\uc73c\ub85c “\uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc774\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc8fc\ub3c4\uc801\uc778 \uc131\uacfc”\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc9c0\ud0f1\ud558\ub294 “\ub2fb” \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc0ac\ub840 2: \ub808\uc774 \ub2ec\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 ‘\uc62c\uc6e8\ub354(All-Weather)’ \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n‘\uc62c\uc6e8\ub354’ \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc0c1 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uac8c \uc124\uacc4\ub41c \ud22c\uc790 ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc774\uae30\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc124\uacc4\ub41c \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uacac\ub514\ub3c4\ub85d \uc124\uacc4\ub41c \uc21c\uc218\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc9c4\ud615\uc774\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \uc6d0\uce59\uc740 “\ubbf8\ub798 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ud544\uc694 \uc5c6\uc774” \uae30\ub2a5\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub124 \uac00\uc9c0 \uacbd\uc81c ‘\uacc4\uc808’\uc5d0 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ubc30\ubd84\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ub2ec\uc131\ub41c\ub2e4: (1) \uc131\uc7a5 \uc0c1\uc2b9(\uac15\uc138\uc7a5), (2) \uc131\uc7a5 \ud558\ub77d(\uc57d\uc138\uc7a5), (3) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9, (4) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud558\ub77d(\ub514\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc62c\uc6e8\ub354 \uc790\uc0b0 \ubc30\ubd84(\ubaa8\ub8e8\uc758 \uad6c\uc131)\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\uc8fc\uc2dd 30% (\uc131\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801)<\/li>\n\n\n\n \uc7a5\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c 40% (\uc131\uc7a5 \ud558\ub77d \ubc0f \ub514\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801)<\/li>\n\n\n\n \uc911\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c 15% (\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801)<\/li>\n\n\n\n \uae08 7.5% (\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801)<\/li>\n\n\n\n \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac 7.5% (\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\uc774 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 ‘\ub9dd\uce58’\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc21c\uc218\ud55c ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc7a5\uae30 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 100% \uc8fc\uc2dd \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 “\ub180\ub77c\uc6c0”\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ubcf4\ud638\ud558\uba70 \uc790\ubcf8 \ubcf4\uc874\uc744 \ucd5c\uc6b0\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc778 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub098 \uc740\ud1f4\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \uc801\ud569\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc62c\uc6e8\ub354 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \ub300\ud45c\ub418\ub294 ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc9c0\uc801 \uacb8\uc190<\/strong>\uc774\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc6cc\ud130 \uc5b4\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\uc774\uce20\uac00 \ub9d0\ud588\ub4ef\uc774, \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 “\ub2f9\uc2e0\uc774 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc5c6\ub3c4\ub85d” \uc124\uacc4\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc804\ud22c\uc5d0\uc11c ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’ \ubd80\ub300(\ud314\ub791\ud06c\uc2a4)\uc758 \uc5ed\ud560\uacfc \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub8e8 \ubd80\ub300\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc740 ‘\ub9dd\uce58’\uac00 \uc5b8\uc81c \uc5b4\ub514\uc11c \uc801\uc744 \ud0c0\uaca9\ud560\uc9c0 \uc54c \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub4e4\uc758 \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \uc784\ubb34\ub294 \uc608\uce21\uacfc \uad00\uacc4\uc5c6\uc774 \uc9c4\ud615\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \ubc84\ud2f0\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’\ub294 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c \uc804\uc220\uc801 \ub3c4\uad6c\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc0dd\uc874 \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>1.3. \ub0a0\uce74\ub85c\uc6b4 ‘\ub9dd\uce58’: \ucd08\uacfc \uc218\uc775(\uc54c\ud30c)\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uae30\ub3d9 \ud0c0\uaca9<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n‘\ub9dd\uce58’\ub294 \ucd08\uacfc \uc218\uc775(\uc54c\ud30c, Alpha)[^1]\uc744 \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc124\uacc4\ub41c, \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc774\uace0 \uc9d1\uc911\uc801\uc778 \uace0\uc704\ud5d8\/\uace0\uc218\uc775 \uad6c\uc131 \uc694\uc18c\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc804\uccb4 \uc2dc\uc7a5(\ubca0\ud0c0)\uc744 \uc774\uae30\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ud0c0\uaca9\ub825, \uc989 \uae30\ubcd1\ub300\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc0ac\ub840 1: ‘\ucf54\uc5b4-\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8’ \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 ‘\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8’<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n‘\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8(Satellite)’\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\uc758 ‘\ub9dd\uce58’\uc774\ub2e4. \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 20-40%\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\uba70 “\ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8, \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ubcf4\uc0c1”\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc139\ud130(\uc608: AI, \ubc14\uc774\uc624\ud14c\ud06c), \uc774\uba38\uc9d5 \ub9c8\ucf13 \ud380\ub4dc, \uace0\uc131\uc7a5 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ub610\ub294 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\uc640 \uac19\uc774 \ubca4\uce58\ub9c8\ud06c\ub97c \ub2a5\uac00\ud560 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b4\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\uac00 \uac15\uc870\ud55c “\uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc9c0\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc804\ub825 \uc9d1\uc911”\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\uc801 \uc801\uc6a9\uc774\ub2e4. ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8'(\ucf54\uc5b4)\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uacac\ub514\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548, ‘\ub9dd\uce58'(\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8)\ub294 \ucd08\uacfc \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uac00\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc131\uacf5 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc9c0\uc810\uc5d0 \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \uc9d1\uc911\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc0ac\ub840 2: \ub098\uc2ec \ud0c8\ub808\ube0c\uc758 ‘\ubc14\ubca8(Barbell)’ \uc804\ub7b5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n‘\ubc14\ubca8’ \uc804\ub7b5[^2]\uc740 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uac1c\ub150\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc774\uace0 \uc21c\uc218\ud55c \uad6c\ud604\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 ‘\uc911\uac04\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\ub294 \uac83’\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\uadf9\ub2e8\uc801 ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’:<\/strong> \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 85-90%\ub97c \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\ub098 \ud604\uae08\ucc98\ub7fc “\uadf9\ub3c4\ub85c \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc99d\uc801\uc778” \uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub454\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uae68\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc808\ub300\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uae30\ubc18\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uadf9\ub2e8\uc801 ‘\ub9dd\uce58’:<\/strong> \ub098\uba38\uc9c0 10-15%\ub294 \ubca4\ucc98 \uce90\ud53c\ud138, \uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5, \uc635\uc158 \ub4f1 “\uadf9\ub3c4\ub85c \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\ub294” \ud22c\uae30 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ubaa9\uc801\uc740 \ube44\ub300\uce6d\uc801 \uc190\uc775 \uad6c\uc870<\/strong>\ub97c \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8’\ub294 \ud558\ubc29 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 -10% \ub610\ub294 -15%\ub85c \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uac8c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, ‘\ub9dd\uce58’\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c 10\ubc30, 100\ubc30\uc758 \uc218\uc775, \uc989 \ubb34\ud55c\ud55c \uc0c1\ubc29 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624, \ud2b9\ud788 \ubc14\ubca8 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c ‘\uc704\ud5d8 \ubd84\uc0b0’\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4 **’\uc548\ud2f0\ud504\ub798\uc9c8\ub9ac\ud2f0(Anti-Fragility)’**\ub97c \uad6c\ud604\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4. ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8'(\uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0)\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c ‘\uacac\uace0\ud558\uac8c(Robust)’ \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 ‘\ub9dd\uce58'(\ud22c\uae30 \uc790\uc0b0)\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c ‘\uc548\ud2f0\ud504\ub798\uc9c8(Anti-Fragile)’\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ucda9\uaca9(\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644)\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc774 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uad6c\uc870\ub294 “\ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294 \uc790\ub294 \uc544\ubb34\uac83\ub3c4 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4”(\ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639)\uc640 “\uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc9c0\uc810\uc5d0 \uc804\ub825\uc744 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\ub77c”(\ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20)\ub294 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc0c1\ucda9\ub418\ub294 \uad70\uc0ac \uc6d0\uce59\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9cc\uc871\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \ud574\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8'(\ucf54\uc5b4\/\uc62c\uc6e8\ub354)\ub294 \uc0dd\uc874\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 ‘\ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294'(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubca0\ud0c0 \/ 4\uacc4\uc808) \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ub9e1\ub294\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 ‘\ub9dd\uce58'(\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8\/\ubc14\ubca8)\ub294 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ub97c \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 ‘\uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc9c0\uc810\uc5d0 \uc804\ub825\uc744 \uc9d1\uc911'(\uc54c\ud30c \/ \ube44\ub300\uce6d \uc218\uc775)\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uad6c\uc870\ub294 ‘\uc0dd\uc874’\uacfc ‘\uc2b9\ub9ac’\ub77c\ub294 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc0c1\ucda9\ub418\ub294 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ud558\ub098\uc758 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd84\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub2ec\uc131\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>\ud30c\ud2b8 2: \uc2b9\ub9ac\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uacfc \ubd95\uad34\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791 \u2013 ‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810’<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/span>2.1. \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4: \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\uc758 \uacbd\uace0<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810(Culminating Point of Attack)'[^3] (\ub610\ub294 Kulminationspunkt des Angriffs)\uc740 \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\uc758 \u300a\uc804\uc7c1\ub860\u300b\uc5d0 \ub098\uc624\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uac1c\ub150\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacf5\uaca9\uc790\uc758 \ud798\uc774 \uc815\uc810\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud574 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uacf5\uc138\ub97c \uc9c0\uc18d\ud560 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc0c1\uc2e4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ubcc0\uace1\uc810\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc740 \ub2e8\uc9c0 \uc801\uc758 \uc800\ud56d \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uacf5\uaca9\uc790 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \ud798\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc6d0\uc778\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ubcd1\ucc38:<\/strong> \uc804\uc120\uc774 \uae38\uc5b4\uc9d0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ubcf4\uae09\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc18c\ubaa8\uc640 \ud53c\ub85c:<\/strong> \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ud22c\uc640 \uc9c4\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ub204\uc801\ub41c \ud53c\ub85c.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\ubc29\uc5b4\uc790\uc758 \uac15\ud654:<\/strong> \ubc29\uc5b4\uc790\ub294 \ud6c4\ud1f4\ud560\uc218\ub85d \uc804\uc120\uc774 \uc9e7\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \uacb0\uc758\uac00 \uad73\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\uc774 \uac1c\ub150\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ud568\uc758\ub294 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\ub2e4: \uacf5\uaca9\uc790\ub294 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc791\uc804 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/strong> \ubc18\ub300\ub85c, \ubc29\uc5b4\uc790\uc758 \uc784\ubb34\ub294 \uacf5\uaca9\uc790\uac00 \uc774 \uc9c0\uc810\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\uac83 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \uc2b9\ub9ac\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc9c0\uc810\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc120 “\uc2b9\ub9ac”\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc7ac\uc559\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc774\ub2e4. \uc77c\ub2e8 \uadf8 \uc9c0\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub098\uba74 \uc6b0\uc704\ub294 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \ub118\uc5b4\uac00\uace0 “\uc190\uc2e4\uacfc \ud328\ubc30\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c\ub2e4.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n\uc774\ub294 \uc0ac\ub9c8\ucc9c\uc758 \u300a\uc0ac\uae30\u300b\uc5d0 \ub098\uc624\ub294 ‘\uac15\ub178\uc9c0\ub9d0(\u5f37\u5f29\u4e4b\u672b)’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uace0\uc0ac\uc640 \uac19\ub2e4: “\uac15\ud55c \uc1e0\ub1cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc3dc \ud654\uc0b4\uc774\ub77c\ub3c4 \uadf8 \ub05d\uc5d0 \uac00\uc11c\ub294 \uc587\uc740 \ube44\ub2e8\uc870\ucc28 \ub6ab\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4.” \uc544\ubb34\ub9ac \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uacf5\uc138\ub77c\ub3c4 \uadf8 \ud55c\uacc4\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud798\uc744 \uc783\ub294\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>2.2. \uad70\uc0ac \uc0ac\ub840 \uc5f0\uad6c: 1812\ub144, \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \ubd95\uad34<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 1812\ub144 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \uce68\uacf5\uc740 ‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810’\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc704\ub300\ud558\uace0 \ube44\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uad50\ud6c8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc740 60\ub9cc \ub300\uad70(Grande Arm\u00e9e)\uc744 \uc774\ub04c\uace0 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\ub97c \uce68\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc911\ubd80 \uc720\ub7fd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uac8c \uc791\ub3d9\ud588\ub358 ‘\ud604\uc9c0 \uc870\ub2ec(living off the land)’\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud55c ‘\uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc804\ud22c’\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774 \uacf5\uc138\ub294 **’\ubcd1\ucc38’**\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\ub984\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub52a\ud614\ub2e4. \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc758 (1) \uc5f4\uc545\ud55c \ub3c4\ub85c\ub9dd, (2) \ucc99\ubc15\ud55c \ub18d\uc5c5 \uae30\ubc18, (3) \ucd08\ud1a0\ud654 \uc804\uc220\ub85c \uc778\ud574 ‘\ud604\uc9c0 \uc870\ub2ec’ \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \uad70\ub300\ub294 \ubcf4\uae09 \ub9c8\ucc28(\ud558\ub8e8 10-12\ub9c8\uc77c)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac(\ud558\ub8e8 15-20\ub9c8\uc77c) \ud589\uad70\ud588\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uad70\ub300\uac00 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc744 \uc55e\uc9c8\ub7ec \ud589\uad70\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc7ac\uc559\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc774 \ubcf4\ub85c\ub514\ub178 \uc804\ud22c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \ubaa8\uc2a4\ud06c\ubc14\uc5d0 \uc785\uc131\ud588\uc744 \ub54c, \uadf8\uc758 \uad70\ub300\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud328\ubc30\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc600\ub2e4. \ubaa8\uc2a4\ud06c\ubc14 \ub3c4\ucc29 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc774\ubbf8 20\ub9cc \uba85\uc774 \uc9c8\ubcd1(\ud2f0\ud478\uc2a4, \uc774\uc9c8)\uacfc \ud53c\ub85c\ub85c \uc0ac\ub9dd\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ud0c8\uc601\ud588\ub2e4. \uccab \ub2ec\uc5d0\ub9cc \ub9d0 1\ub9cc \ub9c8\ub9ac\uac00 \uc8fd\uc5b4 \uadf8\uc758 \uae30\ubcd1(‘\ub9dd\uce58’)\uacfc \uc218\uc1a1 \ubd80\ub300\uac00 \ubd95\uad34\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ubaa8\uc2a4\ud06c\ubc14 \uc810\ub839\uc740 ‘\uc2b9\ub9ac’\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c ‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc120 \uc9c4\uaca9’\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ucfe0\ud22c\uc870\ud504\uac00 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \uad70\ub300\ub294 \uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc804\ud22c\ub97c \ud53c\ud558\uace0 \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc774 \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c\uc758 \ubb34\uac8c\uc5d0 \uc9d3\ub20c\ub824 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\uae30(\uc989, \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uae30)\ub97c \uae30\ub2e4\ub838\uc744 \ubfd0\uc774\ub2e4. ‘\ub3d9\uc7a5\uad70’\uc740 \ud328\ubc30\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uac83\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc640\ud574\ub41c \uad70\ub300\uc5d0\uac8c \ucd5c\ud6c4\uc758 \uc77c\uaca9\uc744 \uac00\ud588\uc744 \ubfd0\uc774\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \uc2e4\ud328\ub294 \uad70\uc0ac\uc801 \ud328\ubc30\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ubcd1\ucc38\uc801 \ud328\ubc30\uc600\ub2e4. \ud504\ub791\uc2a4\uad70\uc740 “\uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubcf4\ucda9\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc” \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uad70\uc740 “\uadf8\ub7f4 \uc218 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.” \uc774\ub294 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uad81\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c ‘\uacbd\uc81c\ub825’\uacfc ‘\ubcd1\ucc38 \ub2a5\ub825’\uc758 \uc2f8\uc6c0\uc784\uc744 \uc99d\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\ub294 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \uad70\ub300\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc758 ‘\uacf5\uac04’\uacfc ‘\ucc99\ubc15\ud568’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801, \ud658\uacbd\uc801 \ud604\uc2e4\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc911\ub2e8\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>2.3. \uacbd\uc81c\uc0ac \uc0ac\ub840 \uc5f0\uad6c: \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\uad70\uc0ac\uc801 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc774 ‘\uad70\ub300’\uc640 ‘\ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120’\uc758 \ubd84\ub9ac\ub77c\uba74, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc740 **’\uac00\uaca9’**\uc774 \uadf8 **’\uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\uc2e4\uc801\/\uc2e0\uc6a9)**\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ubd84\ub9ac\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 ‘\uacf5\uc138’\ub294 \uac15\uc138\uc7a5 \ub610\ub294 \uac70\ud488(Bubble)\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacf5\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\ubcd1\ucc38)\uc740 \ubc14\ub85c \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138, \uc989 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc218\uc775\uc131, \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uc758 \uac74\uc804\uc131\uc774\ub2e4. \uac70\ud488\uc740 “\uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc9c0\uc18d \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9”\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9d0\ud574, ‘\uacf5\uc138'(\uac00\uaca9)\uac00 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138)\uacfc \ubd84\ub9ac\ub418\uc5b4 \ud640\ub85c \uc804\uc9c4\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ud558\uc774\uba3c \ubbfc\uc2a4\ud0a4(Hyman Minsky)[^4]\ub294 \uac70\ud488\uc758 \uc0dd\uc560 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c 5\ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \uc815\uc758\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\ub294 \ub85c\ub4dc\ub9f5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\ubcc0\uc704(Displacement):<\/strong> \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784(\uc778\ud130\ub137, \uc8fc\ud0dd \ubd90 \ub4f1)\uc774 \ub4f1\uc7a5. ‘\uacf5\uc138’ \uc2dc\uc791.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\ubd90(Boom):<\/strong> \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\ud589\ubcf5\uac10(Euphoria):<\/strong> \uc5ec\uae30\uac00 \ubc14\ub85c \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810. \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud3ed\ub4f1\ud558\uace0 “\uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc740 \ubc14\ub78c \uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \ub358\uc838\uc9c4\ub2e4.” \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138(\ubcf4\uae09\uc120)\uc740 \ubb34\uc2dc\ub418\uace0 “\ub354 \ud070 \ubc14\ubcf4 \uc774\ub860(greater fool theory)”\uc774 \uc9c0\ubc30\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc774\uc775 \uc2e4\ud604(Profit Taking):<\/strong> \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc744 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc0c1\ud0dc. ‘\uc2a4\ub9c8\ud2b8 \uba38\ub2c8'(\ud604\uba85\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\uc790)\uac00 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc774 \ub04a\uacbc\uc74c\uc744 \uc778\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c\ub2e4. (\ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639 \uad70\ub300\uc758 \uccab \uc774\ud0c8\uc790\ub4e4\uc774\ub2e4.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n\ud328\ub2c9(Panic):<\/strong> \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ub04a\uacbc\uc74c\uc744 \ubaa8\ub450\uac00 \uae68\ub2eb\ub294 \uc21c\uac04. \ucd1d\uccb4\uc801 \ud6c4\ud1f4(Rout)\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n\uac70\ud488\uc758 “\uc815\uc810”\uc740 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 “\ubd95\uad34”\uac00 \uc544\ub2d0 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc774 \ubaa8\uc2a4\ud06c\ubc14\uc5d0\uc11c \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub358 \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc, \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc815\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c\ub3d9\uc548 \uba38\ubb34\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \ubc18\uc804\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub09c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ud589\ubcf5\uac10(Euphoria)\uc740 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \ub04a\uacbc\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ub97c \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\uba70 \uacc4\uc18d \uc804\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \uad70\ub300\uc758 \uc2ec\ub9ac \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>2.4. \uc0ac\ub840 \uc5f0\uad6c 1: 2000\ub144 \ub2f7\ucef4 \ubc84\ube14 \ubd95\uad34<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n‘\uacf5\uc138’ \ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c:<\/strong> “\uc2e0\uacbd\uc81c(New Economy)”\u2014\uc778\ud130\ub137\uc774 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc744 \ubc14\uafc0 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubbff\uc74c.<\/li>\n\n\n\n‘\ubcf4\uae09’ \uc2e4\ud328:<\/strong> \uc774 \uacf5\uc138\uc758 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120’\uc740 **’\uc218\uc775\uc131’**\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc758 \uc9d5\ud6c4:<\/strong>\n\n\ubcf4\uae09\uc120 \ubb34\uc2dc:<\/strong> \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 ‘\uc218\uc775’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc744 \uacf5\uac1c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubb34\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0 ‘\uc6f9\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8 \ud2b8\ub798\ud53d \uc99d\uac00’ \uac19\uc740 ‘\uc798\ubabb\ub41c \uc9c0\ud45c’\ub97c ‘\ubcf4\uae09\ud488’\uc73c\ub85c \ucc29\uac01\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uadf9\ub2e8\uc801 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158:<\/strong> “\uc218\uc775\uc774 \uc5c6\ub294” \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 \uac00\uce58\uac00 400%\uc529 \ud3ed\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 1995\ub144 1,000 \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc5d0\uc11c 2000\ub144 5,000 \uc774\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c 5\ubc30 \ud3ed\ubc1c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \ud589\ubcf5\uac10:<\/strong> “\ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uad11\uae30”\uc640 “\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud589\ubcf5\uac10”\uc774 \ub9cc\uc5f0\ud588\ub2e4. IPO \uccab\ub0a0 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 2~3\ubc30 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ub2e4\ubc18\uc0ac\uc600\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\ub2f7\ucef4 \ubc84\ube14\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc740 \uc778\uc2dd\ub860\uc801 \uc2e4\ud328<\/strong>\uc600\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \ubcf4\uae09 \uc2e4\ud328\uac00 \ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \uad76\uc8fc\ub9bc\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4\uba74, 2000\ub144\uc758 \ubcf4\uae09 \uc2e4\ud328(\uc218\uc775 \ubd80\uc7ac)\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ucc98\uc74c\ubd80\ud130 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\ub358 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac70\ud488\uc758 ‘\uacf5\uc138’\ub294 ‘\uc218\uc775’\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120 \uc5c6\uc774 ‘\ubbff\uc74c’\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uc9c4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc9d1\ub2e8\uc801 \uc790\uae30\uae30\ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. “\uc720\uba85 \uc8fc\uc2dd”\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c “\uc815\uc11c\uc801 \uc560\ucc29”\uacfc “\ubbf8\ub514\uc5b4\uc758 \uacfc\ub300\uad11\uace0”\uac00 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uc744 \ub300\uccb4\ud588\ub2e4. 2000\ub144 3\uc6d4, \uc774 ‘\ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c'(\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120)\uac00 \uace0\uac08\ub418\uc790 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc740 \ubd95\uad34\ud588\uace0, 2002\ub144 10\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 77%\uc758 \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc783\uc73c\uba70 \uc218\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ubd80\ub97c \uc99d\ubc1c\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>2.5. \uc0ac\ub840 \uc5f0\uad6c 2: 2008\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n‘\uacf5\uc138’ \ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c:<\/strong> “\uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc624\ub978\ub2e4.” “\ub290\uc2a8\ud55c \uc2e0\uc6a9”\uacfc “\ub9cc\uc5f0\ud55c \ud22c\uae30” \uc704\uc5d0 \uc138\uc6cc\uc9c4 \uc8fc\ud0dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd90.<\/li>\n\n\n\n‘\ubcf4\uae09’ \uc2e4\ud328:<\/strong> \uc774 \uacf5\uc138\uc758 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120’\uc740 **’\uc2e0\uc6a9\uc758 \uc9c8(Credit Quality)’**\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc758 \uc9d5\ud6c4:<\/strong>\n\n\uacb0\ud568 \uc788\ub294 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120:<\/strong> ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120’ \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \ucc98\uc74c\ubd80\ud130 \uacb0\ud568\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uacf5\uc138\ub294 “\uc57d\ud0c8\uc801\uc778 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0 \ub300\ucd9c”\uacfc “\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud654\ub41c \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uae30\uc900”\uc744 \uc5f0\ub8cc\ub85c \uc0bc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0\uc758 \uc9c8\uc740 \uc704\uae30 6\ub144 \uc804\ubd80\ud130 \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \uc545\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc740\ud3d0\ub41c \ubcd1\ucc38:<\/strong> \uc774 \uacb0\ud568 \uc788\ub294 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784 \uc704\ud5d8)\uc740 MBS(\uc8fc\ud0dd\uc800\ub2f9\uc99d\uad8c)\uc640 CDO(\ubd80\ucc44\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80\uc99d\uad8c)[^5]\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\ub294 “\ubcf5\uc7a1\ud558\uace0 \ubd88\ud22c\uba85\ud55c \uc99d\uad8c\ud654 \uacfc\uc815”\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc758\ub3c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc228\uaca8\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uacbd\uace0 (\uc885\ub9d0\uc810 \ub3c4\ub2ec):<\/strong> 2007\ub144 8\uc6d4, \ud504\ub791\uc2a4 \uc740\ud589 BNP \ud30c\ub9ac\ubc14\uac00 \uc11c\ube0c\ud504\ub77c\uc784\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub41c 3\uac1c \ud380\ub4dc\uc758 \ud658\ub9e4\ub97c \uc911\ub2e8\ud588\ub2e4. “\ubcf4\uc720 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uae30” \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc815\ubcf4\uc120\uc774 \ub04a\uae34 \uc21c\uac04, \uc989 \ubcf4\uae09 \ub9c8\ucc28\uc5d0 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ubb34\uc5c7\uc774 \uc2e4\ub824 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uc544\ubb34\ub3c4 \ubaa8\ub974\uac8c \ub41c \uc21c\uac04\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n2008\ub144\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc740 \ubcf5\uc7a1\uc131\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ubcd1\ucc38 \uc2e4\ud328<\/strong>\uc600\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc774 \ub108\ubb34 ‘\uae38\uac8c \ub298\uc5b4\uc838\uc11c(Stretched)’ \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\uace0, 2000\ub144\uc758 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc774 ‘\ubb34\uc2dc\ub418\uc5c8\uae30(Ignored)’ \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\ub2e4\uba74, 2008\ub144\uc758 \ubcf4\uae09\uc120\uc740 ‘\uc740\ud3d0\ub418\uc5c8\uae30(Obscured)’ \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\ub2e4. \uc704\ud5d8(\ubd88\ub7c9 \ub300\ucd9c)\uc740 \uc874\uc7ac\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, “AAA” \ub4f1\uae09\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc704\uc7a5 \ub77c\ubca8 \ub4a4\uc5d0 \uc228\uaca8\uc838 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud589\ubcf5\uac10\uc740 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\ud488'(\ubaa8\uae30\uc9c0)\uc758 \uc9c8\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c ‘\ub77c\ubca8'(\uc2e0\uc6a9\ub4f1\uae09)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubbff\uc74c\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud588\ub2e4. 2008\ub144 9\uc6d4 \ub9ac\uba3c \ube0c\ub77c\ub354\uc2a4\uc758 \ud30c\uc0b0\uc740 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubd95\uad34\ud588\uc74c\uc744 \uacf5\uc2dd\ud654\ud558\uba70 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc744 \ud328\ub2c9 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c \ubab0\uc544\ub123\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>\ud30c\ud2b8 3: \ud22c\uc790-\uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uacb0\ub860<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/span>3.1. \uc804\uc7c1\uc758 \uc548\uac1c\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc18c\uc74c: \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810 \uc2dd\ubcc4\ud558\uae30<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc815\ud655\ud55c ‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810’\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \uc874 \uba54\uc774\ub108\ub4dc \ucf00\uc778\uc2a4\uac00 \ub9d0\ud588\ub4ef\uc774, “\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2f9\uc2e0\uc774 \uc9c0\uae09 \ubd88\ub2a5 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uac00 \ub418\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ube44\uc774\uc131\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138)\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc810\uac80\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 ‘\uc815\ucc30\ub300’\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 ‘\uc815\ucc30\ub300’\uac00 \ubc14\ub85c ‘\uacbd\uae30\uc120\ud589\uc9c0\uc218(LEIs)’\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uc740 ‘\uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ud65c\ub825 \uc9d5\ud6c4’\uc774\uba70, ‘\uacf5\uc138'(\uac15\uc138\uc7a5)\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5, \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775)\uc774 \uac74\uac15\ud55c\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc758 \uad70\ub300\ucc98\ub7fc “\ub108\ubb34 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub298\uc5b4\ub0ac\ub294\uc9c0” \uc54c\ub824\uc8fc\ub294 \uc815\ucc30 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120’ \uc810\uac80 \ubaa9\ub85d (\uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uace0 \uc9c0\ud45c):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\uace0\uc6a9 (\uad70\ub300\uc758 \uc0ac\uae30):<\/strong> \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uc138\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294\uac00? \uc8fc\uac04 \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c \uac74\uc218\uac00 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\uac00?<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 (\ubcf4\uae09\ud488 \ube44\uc6a9):<\/strong> CPI\ub098 PPI\uac00 \ub108\ubb34 \ub192\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Fed)\uc774 ‘\ubcf4\uae09'(\ud1b5\ud654 \uacf5\uae09)\uc744 \ucc28\ub2e8\ud560 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc778\uac00?<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc2e0\uc6a9 (\ubcf4\uae09\ub85c\uc758 \uac74\uac15\uc131):<\/strong> \uc120\ud589\uc2e0\uc6a9\uc9c0\uc218(Leading Credit Index)\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\uac00? \uc7a5\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28(10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 vs. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08 \uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \uc5ed\uc804\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\uac00? (2008\ub144 \uc704\uae30\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638)<\/li>\n\n\n\n\ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 (\uad70\ub300\uc758 \ud53c\ub85c\ub3c4):<\/strong> ‘\ubc84\ud54f \uc9c0\uc218'(\uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561\/GDP)\uac00 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub294\uac00? (2000\ub144 \ubc84\ube14\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638)<\/li>\n\n\n\n\uc2ec\ub9ac (\uad70\ub300\uc758 \ub9dd\uc0c1):<\/strong> “\uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \ud589\ubcf5\uac10”\uc774 \uc788\ub294\uac00? \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c “\uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 \ucc99\ub3c4”\uac00 \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud588\ub294\uac00?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<\/span>3.2. \uc2b9\ub9ac\uc758 \uc870\uac74: \uaddc\uc728, \uc778\ub0b4, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud55c\uacc4\uc758 \uc778\uc2dd<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\uc804\uc7a5\uacfc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uac00 \uc8fc\ub294 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uad50\ud6c8\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uccab\uc9f8, \ub2f9\uc2e0\ub9cc\uc758 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’\ub97c \uad6c\ucd95\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/strong> \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \uc790\uc2e0\ub9cc\uc758 ‘\uc9c4\ud615'(\uc608: \ucf54\uc5b4-\uc0c8\ud2c0\ub77c\uc774\ud2b8 \ub610\ub294 \ubc14\ubca8)\uc744 \uac16\ucdb0\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc9c4\ud615\uc758 ‘\ubaa8\ub8e8'(\uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\/\ucf54\uc5b4)\ub294 \ub2f9\uc2e0\uc5d0\uac8c ‘\uc778\ub0b4\uc2ec’\uacfc ‘\uc9c0\uad6c\ub825’\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubca4\uc800\ubbfc \uadf8\ub808\uc774\uc5c4\uc758 ‘\uc548\uc804\ub9c8\uc9c4(Margin of Safety)’ \uac1c\ub150\uacfc \uc77c\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc548\uc804\ub9c8\uc9c4\uc758 \uc9c4\uc815\ud55c \uc218\uc775\uc740 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \ud3c9\ud654(“\uc7a0\uc744 \uc798 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \uac83”)\uc774\uba70, \uacf5\ud3ec\uc5d0 \uc9c8\ub824 \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \uc21c\uac04\uc5d0 ‘\ub9dd\uce58'(\uc131\uc7a5 \uc790\uc0b0)\ub97c \ud314\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub3c4\ub85d \ub9c9\uc544\uc8fc\ub294 ‘\ud589\ub3d9 \ud1b5\uc81c \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998’\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2bc\ud2bc\ud55c \ubaa8\ub8e8\uac00 \ub9dd\uce58\uac00 \uc81c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud560 \uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\ub458\uc9f8, ‘\uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810’\uc744 \uc874\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/strong> \uc9c4\uc815\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uba48\ucdb0\uc57c \ud560 \ub54c\ub97c \uc544\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uae30\uc220\uc740 “\uace8\ub300\ub97c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uac83”, \uc989 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \ud0d0\uc695\uc744 \ud1b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub098\ud3f4\ub808\uc639\uc774 “\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc608\ube44\ub300\ub97c \uac00\uc9c4 \uc790\uac00 \uc804\ud22c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud55c\ub2e4”\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub4ef\uc774, \ud56d\uc0c1 ‘\uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc608\ube44\ub300'(\ud604\uae08, \ub2e8\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810\uc774 \ub3c4\ub798\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \ub2f9\uc2e0\uc744 \uc9c0\ucf1c\uc904 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc120\uc774\uba70, \ud328\ub2c9\uc774 \ub05d\ub0ac\uc744 \ub54c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uacf5\uc138\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 ‘\ub9dd\uce58’\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\ud22c\uc790\ub294 \uc644\ubcbd\ud55c \uacf5\uaca9 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uacfc\ud559\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uac83\uc740 \uacac\uace0\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4(\ubaa8\ub8e8)\uc640 \ub0a0\uce74\ub85c\uc6b4 \uacf5\uaca9(\ub9dd\uce58)\uc758 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \uc608\uc220\uc774\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \uadf8\uac83\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 ‘\ubcf4\uae09\uc120'(\ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138)\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4\ub97c \ub0c9\ucca0\ud558\uac8c \uc778\uc2dd\ud558\ub294 \uaddc\uc728\uc774\uba70, \uc5b8\uc81c\ub098 \uac00\uc7a5 \uba3c\uc800 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \uc790\uc6d0\uc778 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 ‘\uc2ec\ub9ac’\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2a4\ub9ac\ub294 \ub05d\uc5c6\ub294 \ud22c\uc7c1\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\uc758 \ub9d0\ub85c \ub05d\ub9fa\ub294\ub2e4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n“\uc9c0\ud718\uad00\uc740 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc5d0 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc774 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0\ub294 \uccab\ubc1c\uc744 \ub0b4\ub514\ub38c\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>\uac01\uc8fc<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n[^1]: \uc54c\ud30c(Alpha): \uae08\uc735\uc5d0\uc11c \uc54c\ud30c\ub294 \ubca4\uce58\ub9c8\ud06c \uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \ub300\ube44 \ud22c\uc790 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc758 \ucd08\uacfc\ubd84\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uc131\uacfc, \uc989 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ub9e4\ub2c8\uc800\uac00 \ub354\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ube80 “\uac00\uce58”\ub97c \uce21\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ucc99\ub3c4\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n[^2]: \ubc14\ubca8 \uc804\ub7b5(Barbell Strategy): \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub808\ube0c\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ub300\uc911\ud654\ub41c \uc804\ub7b5. \ud55c\ucabd \ub05d\uc740 \uadf9\ub3c4\ub85c \uc548\uc804\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0(\uc608: \ud604\uae08, \ucc44\uad8c)\uc73c\ub85c, \ub2e4\ub978 \ucabd \ub05d\uc740 \uadf9\ub3c4\ub85c \ud22c\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc790\uc0b0(\uc608: \ubca4\ucc98 \uce90\ud53c\ud138, \uc635\uc158)\uc73c\ub85c \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uad6c\uc131\ud558\uace0, “\uc911\uac04 \uc704\ud5d8” \uc790\uc0b0\uc740 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ud53c\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n[^3]: \uacf5\uc138\uc885\ub9d0\uc810(Culminating Point): \uce7c \ud3f0 \ud074\ub77c\uc6b0\uc81c\ube44\uce20\uc758 \uad70\uc0ac \uc774\ub860(\u300a\uc804\uc7c1\ub860\u300b 7\uad8c 22\uc7a5)\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uac1c\ub150. \uacf5\uc138 \uc911 \uacf5\uaca9\uad70\uc758 \ud798\uc774 \uc18c\uc9c4\ub418\uc5b4, \uc131\uacf5\uc758 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2e4\ud328\uc640 \ubc18\uaca9\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc9c0\uc810\uc744 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n[^4]: \ud558\uc774\uba3c \ubbfc\uc2a4\ud0a4(Hyman Minsky): \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790(1919-1996). \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc548\uc815\uacfc \ubc88\uc601\uc758 \uc2dc\uae30\uac00 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\uc735 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uacfc \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \ud589\ubcf5\uac10(a “Minsky Moment”)\uc744 \ub0b3\uc544 \ud544\uc5f0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc704\uae30\uc640 \ubd95\uad34\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 “\uae08\uc735 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uc131 \uac00\uc124”\ub85c \uc720\uba85\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n[^5]: MBS\/CDO: **\uc8fc\ud0dd\uc800\ub2f9\uc99d\uad8c(MBS, Mortgage-Backed Securities)**\uc740 \uac1c\ubcc4 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \ubb36\uc5b4 \ud310\ub9e4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc99d\uad8c\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uae08\uc735 \uc0c1\ud488\uc774\ub2e4. **\ubd80\ucc44\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80\uc99d\uad8c(CDO, Collateralized Debt Obligations)**\uc740 MBS\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ubd80\ucc44 \uc0c1\ud488\uc744 \ubb36\uc5b4 \uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc5ec\ub7ec “\ud2b8\ub79c\uce58(tranche)”\ub85c \ub098\ub208 \ub354 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc0c1\ud488\ub4e4\uc758 \ubd88\ud22c\uba85\uc131\uacfc \uc704\ud5d8 \uacc4\uc0b0 \ucc29\uc624\ub294 2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uc6d0\ubb38 \ud504\ub864\ub85c\uadf8: \ud22c\uc7c1\uc758 \ub450 \uc601\uc6d0\ud55c \ubb34\ub300 \uce78\ub098\uc774 \uc804\ud22c: \uce74\ub974\ud0c0\uace0\uc758 ‘\ub9dd\uce58\uc640 \ubaa8\ub8e8’ \uc804\uc220\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \ub85c\ub9c8\uad70\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ud328\ubc30 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc758 \uac70\ub300\ud55c \ud30c\ub178\ub77c\ub9c8 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc778\uac04\uc758 \ud22c\uc7c1\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc601\uc6d0\ud788 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud558\ub098\ub294 \ud53c\uc640 \ucca0\uc758 \uc804\uc7a5\uc774\uba70, \ub2e4\ub978 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \uacf5\ud3ec\uc640 \ud0d0\uc695\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uae30\uc6d0\uc804 216\ub144 \uce78\ub098\uc774 \ud3c9\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \ud55c\ub2c8\ubc1c\uc774 \ub85c\ub9c8 \uad70\ub2e8\uc744 \ud3ec\uc704\ud588\ub358 \uadf8 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uac10\uc740, 2008\ub144 \ub9ac\uba3c \ube0c\ub77c\ub354\uc2a4 \ubd95\uad34 \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc815\ud655\ud788 \uc7ac\ud604\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4....<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-5"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3609"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3609\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3631,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3609\/revisions\/3631"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saku-hika.azki.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}